How Does the Rise of WFH Help Us to Adapt to Extreme Weather Shocks?
Consider a major snowstorm’s impact on daily productivity in the Chicago suburbs in January 2025. Back in 2019, terrible traffic would snarl and cause delays and danger. In contrast, in January 2025 the weather forecast will give a “heads up” 3 days in advance and bosses will tell workers to work from home. Zoom meetings will take place. The roads will feature fewer cars on those nasty days and those who have to go to work will compete with less congestion.
Of course, local hotels and local restaurants will have fewer customers but local supermarkets will have greater sales as people prepare for the anticipated shock.
A type of seasonal migration may arise as some firms only ask workers to commute to the office only 1 day a week during the worst weather parts of the year.
I predict that in 2025 Chicago WFH eligible workers will get more work done on major snowstorm days because they will spend less total time in commuting, small talk and meetings.
An important point here is that the firm retains the option to “change the play” and call a WFH day similar to a football team’s quarterback changing the play at the line of scrimmage. WFH allows for “reoptimization” in real time. If a surprise storm strikes, WFH gives firms and workers the flexibility to reoptimize. In places with greater weather volatility, this flexibility is especially valuable.
Adapting to Expected Threats
Suppose that I am a highly risk averse person and my office is located in a risky place. This area could feature crime, pollution, flood risk, or fire risk. Suppose I only have to go to the office 2 days a week. Suppose I can commute at 30 miles per hour. To avoid the risks, I listed above, I look at housing in a 60 mile radius around my office. Suppose that “cleanville” is 60 miles from my office. My total commute time each week (including the roundtrip) is (60/30)*2*2 = 8 hours or 1.6 hours per day. While that may seem high, recall that this is a roundtrip and many suburban NYC workers commute more than that each day. The 60 mile radius is huge and allows one much more freedom to find the right residential community given a family’s priorities and the family’s budget $.
I recognize that this post solely focuses on urban people. Starting with my 2010 Climatopolis book, I have argued that urbanization accelerates adaptation. Read my 2016 piece.