Predictions About the Likely Consequences of NYC Mayor Mamdani's Three Main Policy Priorities

On August 31st 2025, the New York Times published a piece that ended with this paragraph.

Let’s take a sober look at #1 Freezing Rents, #2 Free Buses and , #3 Universal Daycare.

What Worries Economists about Freezing Rents?

I hope that Mayor Mamdani’s team reads this well known paper about Cambridge, MA and what happened there when it ended rent control.

Autor, David H., Christopher J. Palmer, and Parag A. Pathak. "Housing market spillovers: Evidence from the end of rent control in Cambridge, Massachusetts." Journal of Political Economy 122, no. 3 (2014): 661-717.

Autor, David H., Christopher J. Palmer, and Parag A. Pathak. "Ending rent control reduced crime in Cambridge." In AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol. 109, pp. 381-384. 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203: American Economic Association, 2019.

Econ 101 predicts that property owners in NYC will stop investing in maintaining their buildings and they will treat their rental tenants worse as they won’t be responsive to service calls and quality of life challenges such as dead animals and noise and garbage.

Most people in rent stabilized buildings in NYC aren’t poor and they aren’t young. Many have been grandfathered in to their “sweet deals” through family connections and payoffs.

The supply of rental housing will also decline in quantity as people who own buildings will seek to turn them into condos rather than to rent them out at a below market rate.

Could Free Buses Backfire?

Back in June 2025, I recorded this 20 minute podcast where I make a series of predictions about the unintended consequences of offering free buses in NYC. I predict that the quality of bus service will decline, fights and danger will unfold at bus stops.

Could Universal Child Care Backfire?

First, we need to know the definition of what the words “Universal Child Care” mean. Would parents pay anything for this service? How many hours a day would this service be provided? What would be the quality of this service? Would there be one adult per 12 children? or per 4 children? Who will certify the quality of this Child Care? Can children with self control problems be removed from groups? What are the rights of people with children who are well behaved versus people who have children who have self control problems?

Will there be an income eligibility requirement for receiving this service? What income is the threshold for determining this? How much will these new Child Care providers be paid? Will teachers at local schools quit their jobs to take these jobs? Does NYC face a limited supply of qualified teachers to be employed at these Child Care centers? Will these workers be unionized?

Will there be any random assignment of children to Child Care centers to allow for a rigorous test of whether this training is effective? What are the performance criteria for judging its effectiveness in training children who will flourish in later life?

How will the commuting to these daycare centers take place? Will they be located in which buildings in what parts of the city so that parents can drop their kids off and go to work?

I respect that Candidate Mamdani is thinking creatively about ways to improve quality of life in NYC but there are other strategies for more cost effectively achieving this goal. I discuss these in my 2025 book; Free to Choose in the American City.