The Competition to be a "Climate Resilient" City
I enjoyed reading this piece that describes how different American cities are seeking a local growth strategy by marketing themselves as “climate havens”. What do these words mean and how do we verify these claims.
All of us seek to be healthy and comfortable and to raise children who flourish. Climate change poses risks to each of these goals. High heat, PM2.5 air pollution, drought, and natural disasters all pose risks to be healthy , and comfortable. Facing this reality, look at map of the U.S —- where do you want to live your 80 years such that you achieve your many goals. You need to earn a living. You want to be able to afford some nice housing. You want to pay low taxes. You want to be safe and secure. You want to enjoy warm weather in winter and not too nasty summer temperatures. You want to be close to your extended family and friends and the places where you grew up and that you treasure. Of course, you can’t achieve all of these goals. Living in Baltimore offers you the chance to achieve some of these goals while living in West Los Angeles will allow you to achieve other possiblities here.
Real estate prices adjust so that you pay to live in heaven and you will pay low rents to live in hell. You are free to choose where you live and what type of housing you live. Of course, richer people have more to choose from.
It is a fact that cities in the Northeast and Midwest have been losing population for decades as people have suburbanized and moved to the South and West. Cities such as Buffalo, New York face a marketing challenge and it has been wise of the Mayor to use concern about the climate to try to get people to take a new look at considering moving to this city.
Suppose Buffalo, New York provides to be able to provide high quality services in terms of not having power blackouts and quickly shoveling snow off of roads. Suppose that summers in Buffalo are mild without featuring 100 degree days. This type of service provision combined with the natural advantages of being towards the North would help to distinguish this city from rival cities such as Phoenix.
Household safety and comfort depends on more than simply one’s point on a map. Housing construction and neighborhood design also determines one’s ability to adapt to extreme weather. A theme of my research is that as more people seek resilience products that for profit firms will innovate to supply these. The profit motive is a powerful force fueling adaptation.
I want to live in an economy where Mayors of cities invest in making their cities more resilient rather than simply making marketing claims. A City becomes more resilient when water, electricity and insurance are priced to reflect scarcity. A city becomes more resilient when land use regulations are changed to allow for upzoning on land that is relative safer in terms of fire and flood risk. A city that engages in strategies to offset the urban heath island effect also becomes a greener city. This checklist of resilience investments can be verified. To keep this post short, I haven’t even mentioned flood control but the same logic holds. Here, there are synergies between levee construction and zoning. Where are the levees built? What is the probability they fail? Are people allowed to live close to these areas? These decisions play a key role in determining the rare disaster risk a city faces from extreme weather. We want to avoid a future New Orleans shock. How much do different cities have to pay to avoid such disasters? An economist would ask; when has a city become too safe relative to the benefits of the risk reduction?
The competition between areas to attract people and jobs gives local leaders strong incentives to invest in improving local quality of life. If people care more about physical climate risks such as natural disaster damage then local leaders have a stronger incentive to invest local revenue to enhance safety. This competition protects all of us. This was a major theme of my 2010 Climatopolis book and my 2021 Adapting to Climate Change book.